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Bitcoin Analysis

Forecast for the development of the Bitcoin price (experimental)

It is estimated that the BTC price will be about 3205.81 Euros in 3 hours, a decrease of -48.64 EUR at the present price of 3254,45 EUR.
(Calculated from 10,425,216 records)

[Explanation of the page]

Last 48 hours | Last Week | All data

The Forecast

Important: As everyone knows, a forecast is of course impossible. Nevertheless, each course (whether a stock or digital currencies) has a particular pattern, which can be evaluated in the long term. That is what this site makes. It analyzes several factors (eg. past developments, prices, trading volume, foreign exchange rates, Google Trends, time, day, etc.), read the pattern and calculated from currently 10,425,216 records a prediction. The program is not a neural network, but it analyzes the actual predictions and is able to learn from mistakes.

Please do not come up with the idea to trade over your limit, just because this tool tells you to do so. Rather, you should use this tool to see the development of prices and see possible probabilities. You need to interpret the values alone.

The forecast chart

The forecast graph consists of several values, all of which can be added or removed in the legend. Here is a detailed description of the legend:

Price: The current course of Bitcoins in Euro.

Forecast (long term): This is the forecast value, which was calculated on the basis of many factors.

Range: An area that represents the forecast in a plus/minus zone. The forecast value is always in the middle of the area.
If the course is in the middle of the range, the prediction was accurate. Otherwise, it was wrong.
The range is indicated by plus / minus one, five and ten percent. By strong changes of the current trade volume, the range may increase, which indicates generally a stronger price fluctuations in the next few minutes / hours.

Forecast (short term): This is a different prediction that is based only on events of the last hours.

Risk: The risk indicates the probability of a price change. Although I often specify the value in percent, it is more a score.
If the score is low, a low-price change is expected, the probability of a large price change is also very low.
At a high level a large price change is expected. Also, the probability of a large price change increases significantly.

The forecast is always determined for now + 3 hours. A given estimate is not corrected later. Even if the program noted later that it was wrong. Zoom with the mouse in the yellow area to see the forecast better.

BTC Risk-O-Meter

Large pointer: Indicates the current probability of a price change in 3 hours (see Risk).
Small pointer: Indicate the development. If the course will rather go down (red arrow) or up (green arrow).
The more the little pointer is removed from the large pointer, the greater the likelihood that the price goes up or down.

Hit rate: Indicates how often the forecast in which Range was right.

Additional charts

Bitcoin price per weekday: Here you see, that the price on certain days is always higher or lower than on other days.

Bitcoin price per time: The same as above, only for 24 hours. Again, it is clear that the time plays a role for the course.

Bitcoin price and trade volume: No Forecast, displays only the development of the course, depending on the trading volume. Here it is clear that each increase of the trade volume is followed by a strong price change.

Google Trends: How often a term was searched.

[close this help]

Forecast

Hit rate of the predictions
±10% Range	±5% Range	±1% Range
99,15%	97,73%	39,40%
218067x yes, 1866x no	214817x yes, 4993x no	86646x yes, 133249x no

[Explanation of the page]

Bitcoin price per weekday

Bitcoin price per hour

Bitcoin price and trade volume

EMA Analysis

Since bitcoincharts.com has already solved it so beautiful, I have spared me the work to create an additional EMA chart.
EMA stands for Exponential Moving Averages (Wikipedia) and calculates the moving average of a development.
According to this principle, most bots work.
Simply said: Exceeds (crosses) the brown EMA(10) line of the blue EMA(21) line, the price goes up and bots buy. In the opposite case (brown under blue) they sell.
On bitcoincharts.com you can adjust the EMA values individually.